(Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. The highest percentage being 66.1%. 108,000 people. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. Joe Biden (631) Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? Until this year. Their concerns are real. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. Until this year. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. It is easy to gloss over this. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). Website Updates Paused Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. . Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Nobody forgot about politics.". In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. i.e. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. They simply vote on merit. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. Read about our approach to external linking. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Still, the state's worth watching. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. 25 battleground counties to watch - POLITICO The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. It almost became religious.". Dont simply gloss over this. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. Here's why. Fact check: 5 election statistics do not discredit Joe Biden's victory Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election.
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